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Blackjack has long been one of the most-popular games in the casino. However, it’s been losing steam in recent years.

Blackjack’s once steadfast grip on the table sector has been broken. Other games, such as mini baccarat and roulette, have increased in player share as a result.

6:5 payouts on naturals (21 on first two cards) are the culprits behind blackjack’s diminishing popularity. They’ve pushed people away from the game and made it less appealing.

I’m going to discuss more on blackjack’s rise and fall and why casinos messed with a proven formula.

Why Did Blackjack Become Popular?

Blackjack wasn’t always so notable. Up until the 1950s, it was just another game. This perception changed, though, in 1956.

Four U.S. Army mathematicians, who are now known as the “Four Horsemen,” developed basic blackjack strategy. Their work appeared in the Journal of the American Statistical Association and later became popular among gamblers.

Basic blackjack strategy doesn’t give players the edge over the house. It does, however, help gamblers severely reduce the casino’s advantage.

Assuming good rules are present, a player can lower the house advantage to just 0.5% by using basic blackjack strategy. Blackjack tables in the 1950s all offered favorable rules.

Players back then gave themselves a strong chance to win by mastering basic strategy. Those who were tired of losing at craps—very popular at the time—and looking to use skill found blackjack a suitable alternative.

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Card Counting Forced Casinos to Take Notice

Up until the early 1960s, blackjack players were perfectly fine with playing casinos at a near coin flip. They didn’t hold the edge, but they were still able to win through strategy and a little luck.

Ed Thorp blew the doors off blackjack in the early 1960s, though. The New Mexico State University math professor refined card counting and gained a notable edge over casinos.

Thorp published his findings in the 1962 best-seller Beat the Dealer. This book shares Thorp’s Ten Count system along with other intricacies of counting cards.

Casinos no doubt recognized the trouble that this advantage-play method presented. They were now offering a game that could be beaten through the right technique.

Gamblers who read Beat the Dealer rushed to the tables to use their newfound knowledge. In the process, they made blackjack the most-popular game in Vegas casinos.

Of course, successful card counting requires more than just reading a book. It calls on players to keep up with the dealer, block out distractions, and bet at the right moments.

Most players aren’t good enough to combine all these factors and make consistent profits. Therefore, Beat the Dealer initially helped casinos by bringing hordes of players to the tables.

Casinos still watched for the occasional pro who was capable of beating them. But they were still largely comfortable with the notion of wannabe pros.

Casinos Made Rule Changes to Combat Card Counters

Card counting has only become more refined since the days when Ed Thorp popularized it. This advantage-play method is also more easily accessible than ever before.

The average blackjack player can learn to count cards within minutes thanks to the internet. Of course, they still need to practice their skills, but they’ll at least understand how to correctly count.

Even going back to the 1970s, card counting had already become easier for the average person. This decade saw plenty of books released on the subject.

Blackjack legend Al Francesco developed the Big Player (BP) concept during this era too. The BP method later became a key element of the MIT Blackjack Team’s strategy in the 1980s and 90s.

Gambling establishments were no longer dealing with laymen who tried counting with just $200. Instead, they were dealing with skilled teams and advanced solo counters.

The industry became better at spotting the signs of a card counter. Many casinos even hired Griffin Investigations to out advantage players.

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Nevertheless, casinos were still losing heavily to card counters in the seventies and beyond. They began changing rules as a result.

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Here are some of the rule changes they put into effect to thwart counters:

• Natural blackjack payouts changed from 3:2 to 6:5—increases house edge by 1.39%.
• Single-deck blackjack changed to eight decks—raises house edge by 0.59%.
• Dealer hits instead of standing on soft 17—increases house advantage by 0.2%.
• Continuous shuffling machines used at some tables—makes card counting impossible.
• Players restricted to doubling down on 9 through 11—increases house edge by 0.25%.
• No doubling down after splitting—raises house advantage by 0.17%

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You won’t find all these unfavorable rules in a single game. However, you’ll be dealing with a tough table if 6:5 natural payouts are combined with one or more casino-friendly rules.

These rules were designed to diminish advantage players’ profitability. However, they’ve also taken a bite out of normal players’ winnings too.

The Disintegrating Popularity of Blackjack

Blackjack seems just as popular as ever in spite of the negative rule changes. Many people still sit at tables with 6:5 natural payouts and eight decks.

However, the numbers show a different story. According to a UNLV report, Las Vegas features 32.65% fewer blackjack tables now than it did in 2000.

The amount that Vegas casinos have won is down 2.4%. This figure doesn’t seem so bad when considering Sin City offers two-thirds the tables that it once did.

When accounting for 50% inflation from then, though, Vegas is making far less from blackjack than it did two decades ago.

One factor that could account for the massive drop in blackjack interest is the spread of casinos. Most states now feature legal casino gambling.

However, the spread of gaming doesn’t explain how baccarat has become much more popular within the past 20 years.

Odds are, more and more players have gradually come to realize that blackjack doesn’t offer great odds anymore. Some gamblers don’t want to bother with basic strategy’s intricacies if they’ll be facing a 2% house edge anyways.

Were Casinos Wise to Change Blackjack?

No casino game lends itself to advantage play more than blackjack. Card counting, hole carding, and shuffle tracking are all possible in this game.

Card counting is especially prevalent, because it offers a simple path towards gaining an edge. Anybody can use counting to make profits with enough effort and money.

Casinos were up against a wall when figuring out how to deal with advantage players. The problem initially sorted itself out in the sixties. Most players who tried counting cards weren’t that good at it.

However, the average counter improved by the 1970s. This improvement has accelerated up until now thanks to easily accessible information.

Gambling establishments have made various rule changes over the years to hurt advantage players. However, they’ve also turned off average gamblers who just want a fair chance to win.

The numbers speak for themselves. Nevada features over 32% fewer tables and draws less money from blackjack than 20 years ago. The latter fact is more notable when considering that inflation has risen 50% within the same time span.

Thwarting card counters doesn’t justify losing out on 50% revenue from the recreational crowd. Players have caught on to how 6:5 payouts are a bad deal, and they refuse to accept unfavorable rules.

Casinos still must deal with advantage players as well. That said, they’ve only hurt themselves by changing the rules over the past few decades.

Conclusion

Blackjack originally gained clout by offering the best odds in gambling. Unfortunately, it’s become just another game and now features a 2.0% house edge in many land-based casinos.

Card counting drove the gambling industry to alter blackjack rules. Casinos needed a way to make counting less lucrative—especially as advantage players became more adept in the 1970s and beyond.

They’ve since reduced natural payouts, added more decks, instated double-down restrictions, and allowed dealers to hit on soft 17. Out of these rules, 6:5 natural blackjack payouts are certainly the most-devastating.

Reducing the natural blackjack payout from 3:2 to 6:5 increases the house edge by 1.39%. As a result, many would-be players now bypass the blackjack tables.

Blackjack is still a highly popular game. It competes with mini baccarat as the top table game in many gambling jurisdictions.

However, it used to be clear and away the top table game. 6:5 natural payoffs, along with other unfavorable rules, are the primary culprit.

Most gamblers don’t like hassling with basic strategy if they’ll still face the same house edge as non-skilled games. Unless the rules change, then blackjack will continue to slowly lose players in the coming years.